"Modernisation of Irish Rail : 1997

Post by Arthur Figgis
[...]
While MU-isation, commuter services, Luas and similar things probably
made sense - viewed in terms of "modern European country" rather than
"place to go on holiday trainspotting" - having done the Limerick to
Galway line last year I had to wonder if it was really a sensible use of
money. Anyone know how it is performing - does it perhaps have commuter
traffic which I would have seen over Easter?
And Ireland has actually got a renewed railway network out of it all.
How has, say, Greece got on in the same period?

Ireland (RO thereof) now has a fairly extensive motorway network,
something that hardly existed a couple of decades ago, so it's not a
case of EU transport dosh just ending up with the railways.

Greece might have got on better if, well, it had managed itself a bit
better. The Irish seemed to know how to play the game a bit better
(though the initially impressive Celtic tiger got caught up inflating
itself beyond all reasonable proportions during the boom, of course).

Bruce

2011-10-17 22:36:41 UTC

Post by Mizter T
Greece might have got on better if, well, it had managed itself a bit
better. The Irish seemed to know how to play the game a bit better
(though the initially impressive Celtic tiger got caught up inflating
itself beyond all reasonable proportions during the boom, of course).

Both Ireland and Greece fell into the same trap. Exactly the same
trap. Cheap borrowing fuelled an unsustainable boom that was founded
on ... well, nothing.

Britain also fell into the same trap, but we appear better able to
escape because our currency devalued by more than a quarter. Ireland
and Greece don't have that luxury, being stuck in the Euro.

In terms of debt, thanks to Gordon Brown, Britain is actually more
indebted than Greece.

Jeremy Double

2011-10-18 05:30:27 UTC

Post by Bruce

Both Ireland and Greece fell into the same trap. Exactly the same
trap. Cheap borrowing fuelled an unsustainable boom that was founded
on ... well, nothing.

A bit unfair on Ireland: their cheap company tax policy did stimulate a LOT
of inward investment in manufacturing. For instance, there's now a lot of
pharmaceutical manufacture in Ireland, in recently-built plants.

So in Ireland, at least some of the boom was based on growth in the real
economy.

The big problem in Ireland was imprudent bankers, as in many other parts of
the world. It had more effect because of the size of the banks relative to
the country's economy. (Iceland had this even worse.)

--
Jeremy Double

Hans-Joachim Zierke

2011-10-18 12:38:01 UTC

Post by Jeremy Double
A bit unfair on Ireland: their cheap company tax policy did stimulate a LOT
of inward investment in manufacturing. For instance, there's now a lot of
pharmaceutical manufacture in Ireland, in recently-built plants.

The main problem of Ireland's policies has been, that the so-called
"Double Irish"

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Double_Irish_Arrangement

created a lot more damage to other economies, dozens of billions each
year, than the gains for the Irish. Another problem has been, that they
first refused to contain the damage, and after a bursting bubble,
expected rescue by the very same economies they had helped to betray.

Post by Jeremy Double
So in Ireland, at least some of the boom was based on growth in the real
economy.

That's true.

Hans-Joachim

Nick Fotis

2011-10-18 21:41:50 UTC

Maybe Michael Lewis article about Ireland could shed some light on their
situation, by the way:

http://www.vanityfair.com/business/features/2011/03/michael-lewis-ireland-201103

He has started a strange kind of travelogue, 'financial disaster
tourism' he calls it.

First, he starts with Iceland, "Wall Street on the Tundra":
http://www.vanityfair.com/politics/features/2009/04/iceland200904

Then comes Greece:
http://www.vanityfair.com/business/features/2010/10/greeks-bearing-bonds-201010

(there's also a Q&A after these two articles):
http://www.vanityfair.com/online/daily/2010/09/michael-lewis-talks-about-the-banks-that-brought-down-greece

Then comes Ireland:
http://www.vanityfair.com/business/features/2011/03/michael-lewis-ireland-201103

Next stop: Germany - "It’s the Economy, Dummkopf!":
http://www.vanityfair.com/business/features/2011/09/europe-201109

And the current stop is (surprise!) USA - "Too fat to fly":
http://www.vanityfair.com/business/features/2011/11/michael-lewis-201111

These articles are the body of a new book by him that is slated to
circulate soon.

N.F.

Hans-Joachim Zierke

2011-10-19 14:43:21 UTC

Post by Nick Fotis
Maybe Michael Lewis article about Ireland could shed some light on their
http://www.vanityfair.com/business/features/2011/03/michael-lewis-ireland-201103

That's nice reading, but I'm not sure, why you think that it offers an
explanation.

What's your argument supposed to be? "If the Irish government was
willing to work as the letterbox company for caribbean taxhavens, this
wasn't in bad faith either, but out of incompentence, too"?

After all, the damage done to other countries /before/ the crash was
higher. Higher than the debt they now pay off.

Post by Nick Fotis
http://www.vanityfair.com/business/features/2010/10/greeks-bearing-bonds-201010

Haven't read that yet. But at the newsstand, I saw today's huge headline
of the best-selling tabloid in Germany: "Griechen bunkern 200 Milliarden".

Prediction: Bringing the message to Joe Average in Germany, that rich
Greeks move hundreds of billions out of the country, isn't going to make
Mrs. Merkel's job a lot easier at home.

Hans-Joachim

--
The great enemy of the truth is very often not the lie — deliberate, contrived
and dishonest, but the myth — persistent, persuasive, and unrealistic.

John F. Kennedy, Commencement address, Yale University, 11 June 1962

Nick Fotis

2011-10-20 00:45:32 UTC

Post by Nick Fotis
Maybe Michael Lewis article about Ireland could shed some light on their
http://www.vanityfair.com/business/features/2011/03/michael-lewis-ireland-201103

That's nice reading, but I'm not sure, why you think that it offers an
explanation.

As you said, it's a good reading, but I feel that we should 'read
between the lines' in order to draw some conclusions for ourselves.

I have read lots of material regarding financing and economics the last
two years, trying to undestand what happened to Greece and Europe.

At the moment, different schools of economists battle between them, like
religious dogmas, and they try to interpret reality according to their
dogmatic approaches.
And (of course) their explanations and suggestions are so contrasting,
that everybody who listens to them will become deeply confused.

Post by Hans-Joachim Zierke
After all, the damage done to other countries /before/ the crash was
higher. Higher than the debt they now pay off.

From what I have read (in M.Lewis and others), while Icelanders were
byuing companies and whatnot outside Iceland, Irish people were buying
each other.

Post by Nick Fotis
http://www.vanityfair.com/business/features/2010/10/greeks-bearing-bonds-201010

Haven't read that yet. But at the newsstand, I saw today's huge headline
of the best-selling tabloid in Germany: "Griechen bunkern 200 Milliarden".

I think that you should read this article, I feel it illuminates some
aspects of the Greek case (but not everything - situation is a bit more
complex).

Each case of the M.Lewis travels and observations was different on the
outcome, but the starting point was the same:
cheap credit, even for people/countries that didn't justify it.

Post by Hans-Joachim Zierke
Prediction: Bringing the message to Joe Average in Germany, that rich
Greeks move hundreds of billions out of the country, isn't going to make
Mrs. Merkel's job a lot easier at home.

Unfortunately for the German voter, having the Bild pointing at Greece
as the 'naughty ones' is not going to solve the problem nearly all the
European governments have got into
(and that includes UK as well, despite them being outside the Eurozone).

I expect France to lose soon their AAA rating, and then things will be
VERY interesting.
Pointing to a country that is a very small part of the Eurozone as the
source of all the Euro problems is not logical.
Of course, logic has not much to do with the current political situation...

This is a major topic that is debated to death in Greek fora, I tell you.
And there is not a consensus on the sources of the problem at the moment
(many are still in the 'denial phase')

N.F.

Hans-Joachim Zierke

2011-10-20 23:32:39 UTC

Post by Hans-Joachim Zierke
That's nice reading, but I'm not sure, why you think that it offers an
explanation.

As you said, it's a good reading, but I feel that we should 'read
between the lines' in order to draw some conclusions for ourselves.

It doesn't make any attempt to explain, why Ireland decided to work as
some kind of shell corporation for caribic tax havens.

After all, that's a major part of their current problems: If you first
lend a helping hand to strapping other countries from dozens of billions
of tax income, problems might arise, if you expect them to come for the
rescue of your financial system.

With the most irrational part being the fact, that only a very small
part of that money ended up in Ireland.

Post by Hans-Joachim Zierke
After all, the damage done to other countries /before/ the crash was
higher. Higher than the debt they now pay off.

From what I have read (in M.Lewis and others), while Icelanders were
byuing companies and whatnot outside Iceland, Irish people were buying
each other.

That's not what I was talking about. Ireland was the leader in Europe,
in the rat race towards lower corporate taxes. By its policies, it
forced other countries to follow, at least part of the way. The late
90s were full of complaints about this strategy, with the Germans
complaining the loudest, looking at how Ireland used the EU money (paid
for, in large part, by Germany) to build an industry not for production,
but on tax avoidance in other countries.

The end result was, that Germany lowered its corporate taxes as well
(though not as low as in Ireland, and without the frontdoor to tax
havens), and a major redistribution of income in Germany. The
unification was paid for by the average German by not having any
increase in income for the last 20 years (after inflation), and with
a lower standard of social security. The German industries contributed
nothing.

Post by Hans-Joachim Zierke
Haven't read that yet. But at the newsstand, I saw today's huge headline
of the best-selling tabloid in Germany: "Griechen bunkern 200 Milliarden".

I think that you should read this article, I feel it illuminates some
aspects of the Greek case (but not everything - situation is a bit more
complex).

I did, and it fits to what I knew already. On the other hand, I'm no
longer sure about the quality, after reading the piece about Germany -
which tells you a lot about the writer, but almost nothing about
Germany.

Post by Nick Fotis
Unfortunately for the German voter, having the Bild pointing at Greece
as the 'naughty ones' is not going to solve the problem nearly all the
European governments have got into

While the headlines of that tabloid certainly don't any good, the facts
hidden behind it are, I think, hard to challenge:

1) Rich Greeks didn't pay any taxes, because Greece did not have a
working tax collection system.
2) Now that these rich Greeks have to fear tax collectors, they move
their money to Switzerland (or the caribic, or whereever), with a
volume of several hundred billions.
3) A bailout of Greece means, practically, that the average German pays
for these uncollected taxes, practically transforming the money of
German taxpayers into shiny yachts for the tiny few.

Or if we go from the rich ones to the average people, in the world of
railways: A train driver in Greece has twice the income of a train
driver in Germany. Now the train driver in Germany is asked, to bail out
the Greek state, so that it can continue to pay twice the wage to Greek
train drivers.
No government in Germany could ever survive to do this. (After all, it
isn't just the train drivers.)

At the same time, the European Union still enjoys widespread support in
Germany, and it isn't a problem to fund a major share of the EU
expenses. There are two reasons for it:

1) A postwar generation of politicians, grewing up in ruins, made "the
European idea" their personal goal. The logic has been, to establish
a solid Europe, which would even survive some crazy people coming to
power somewhere, thus avoiding war forever.

Today, we take this mostly for granted, but look back into history,
how many years of peace this continent has enjoyed.

While this generation is mostly dead now, the consent is still firmly
established in Germany.

2) The economic advantages are worth it, even if Germany pays a major
share of the expenses, and countries like - say: Britain - have
mostly a free ride.

So it wasn't a problem, to fill the cohesion funds for Greece with
German money. With the exception of rightwing fringe groups, which
might collect 3% in elections, nobody has questioned the wisdom of
doing so.

The current situation is different: The average German might still
support a bailout of Poland or Slovakia or ... or ..., but not Greece.

For changing that, you have to find some magic spell, which convinces
the Germans, that the money won't end up in bribery schemes (and
finally: real estate or yachts or Swiss bank accounts), or that it won't
end up in inflated wages of government employees, or administrations
employing three times the staff for less results, or in toys for your
military (Greece has three times the military expenditure of Germany,
in % of GDP), but in sustainable development.

Finding that magic spell is going to be a tough job, though.

Post by Nick Fotis
Pointing to a country that is a very small part of the Eurozone as the
source of all the Euro problems is not logical.

That's right. Greece does not cause the Euro crisis, it's just bankrupt.
An official bankruptcy of Greece would be survivable, because the Greek
economy is small enough. The real problem is the possible conclusion by
market players, that bigger economies could fail as well (Spain for
example is much harder to survive).

Post by Nick Fotis
Of course, logic has not much to do with the current political situation...

Oh, logic has everything to do with it. Germans assume, that bailing out
Greece would achieve nothing but a bankruptcy in five years instead, and
this assumption is absolutely logical.

Hans-Joachim

Nick Fotis

2011-10-25 00:04:34 UTC

[ Sorry for being late in answering, I was participating in a FREMO
model railroad exhibition in Athens (our first showing), and I'm still
catching up... ]

Post by Nick Fotis
I think that you should read this article, I feel it illuminates some
aspects of the Greek case (but not everything - situation is a bit more
complex).

Agreed, the story about Germany was a bit strange (to put that mildly).
My (short-duration) visits to Germany didn't give me such a perspective
(but I am a railfan, so I am not a typical case either :-) )

Post by Hans-Joachim Zierke
1) Rich Greeks didn't pay any taxes, because Greece did not have a
working tax collection system.

Agreed (corruption is rampant in Greek society, and everybody tries to
avoid taxes any way they can).

This often entails creating off-shore companies etc. - everything legal
in paper, but illegal in essence, because the Greek tax law is
incredibly complex and convoluted, with laws added one upon another,
creating a huge and conflicting maze of regulations.

In general, the rich in all societies tend to use all kinds of legal
machinations in order to avoid taxes, Greece is not unique in this.
Note that Warren Buffett famously mentioned this discrepancy.

I copy from the Wikipedia entry: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Warren_Buffett

"Buffett stated that he only paid 19% of his income for 2006 ($48.1
million) in total federal taxes (due to their being from dividends &
capital gains), while his employees paid 33% of theirs, despite making
much less money. “How can this be fair?” Buffet asked, regarding how
little he pays in taxes compared to his employees. “How can this be
right?” He also added:

“There’s class warfare, all right, but it’s my class, the rich class,
that’s making war, and we’re winning.” "

The Greek state and the Greek people are suspicious of each others, and
for a good reason - there was never a real 'social contract' between
these two sides.

Post by Hans-Joachim Zierke
2) Now that these rich Greeks have to fear tax collectors, they move
their money to Switzerland (or the caribic, or whereever), with a
volume of several hundred billions.

Probably the estimates are very higher than reality.
If I remember correctly, the numbers are in the 60-80 billion Euros
region. And even the interest of these amounts is being taxed in
Switzerland, and the Greek state does collect a part of the taxes, based
on a bilateral agreement.

Note that many of the really rich Greeks have moved their residence
outside Greece, to countries like Luxemburg, where the taxes are lower
and more stable
(the latter is VERY important - in 2011 only, we had THREE changes of
the tax system rates - how can a company operate legally in such a
quicksand-like system?)

Post by Hans-Joachim Zierke
3) A bailout of Greece means, practically, that the average German pays
for these uncollected taxes, practically transforming the money of
German taxpayers into shiny yachts for the tiny few.

One thing that troubled me for years:
everybody knew that the Greek economy was not worth the ridiculously low
interest in money being loaned (basically, the really wrong part was
providing ultra-cheap credit on the whole Eurozone at German-level
interest, on economies that had no relation to Germany)

And this triggered an irresponsible behaviour on the populace and the
elected politicians, while EU and Eurostat was accepting all these
spurious statistics and the excuses.

That was like spoiling a child for years, and suddently punishing it
because it became a brat.

Post by Hans-Joachim Zierke
Or if we go from the rich ones to the average people, in the world of
railways: A train driver in Greece has twice the income of a train
driver in Germany. Now the train driver in Germany is asked, to bail out
the Greek state, so that it can continue to pay twice the wage to Greek
train drivers.

Since it happens to know a bit about that subject (being a participant
in a Greek railfan forum - www.amnizia.com for the interested), I would
like to add some observations:

Railroaders were a very easy PR target for the 'neoliberals', because in
the past they were hard bargainers, and they got high raises in the
bonus allowances (for early attendance at work or other excuses).
The official wages were not raised by much.

Newspapers published vitriolic articles claiming that railroaders were
earning 100.000+ Euros per months, but the numbers were misleading:
- typical base salary was around 1500-1600 per month (note seniority
situation below)
- OSE has essentially stopped getting new employees since 1985 (nearly
90% of the personnel is now near retirement age)
- with seniority, wages go up in average (if nearly all people were
employed in 1985, you can compare it with an army where the lowest
position was a colonel)
- many of the drivers were working overtime for many hours, due to bad
organization of the company, raking lots of extra payment
- nearly half of the wages are not entering the pockets of the eployees,
but are social security costs, medical security, etc.
- last, but not least, the large majority of the railroaders didn't get
these wages, but some trade unionists landed the most cushy assignments,
raising their income to these stratospheric levels
(and the party politics entered the fray, leading others to 'leak' the
payrolls to newspapers, which had a field day)

Post by Hans-Joachim Zierke
2) The economic advantages are worth it, even if Germany pays a major
share of the expenses, and countries like - say: Britain - have
mostly a free ride.

According to many observers in Greece, Germany gained indirectly a major
amount of this money, since lots of that money lent to Greece was used
in importing Germany automobiles, locomotives, battletanks, submarines,
etc., returning into Germany again.

Note that Germany (and France) have violated the Maastricht treaty for
years, but nobody said much in public.
Germany justified their bending of the treaty by the expenses of the
reunification, and the others kept silent as far as I remember.

Post by Hans-Joachim Zierke
For changing that, you have to find some magic spell, which convinces
the Germans, that the money won't end up in bribery schemes (and
finally: real estate or yachts or Swiss bank accounts), or that it won't
end up in inflated wages of government employees, or administrations
employing three times the staff for less results, or in toys for your
military (Greece has three times the military expenditure of Germany,
in % of GDP), but in sustainable development.

Note that the military spending is being justified with our neighbours
in the east.
I do not see any probability of Germany being attacked by Poland, in
comparison :-)

And Turkey is all the time using the threat of using military force
(remember the Imia incident?).
They have even officially declared that any change in the Greek
continental shelf of the Aegean islands is 'casus belli' (just an example).

Funny thing is, Merkel and Sarkozy are still pressing Greece to buy
Eurofighters or FREMM frigates, respectively...

Post by Nick Fotis
Of course, logic has not much to do with the current political situation...

Oh, logic has everything to do with it. Germans assume, that bailing out
Greece would achieve nothing but a bankruptcy in five years instead, and
this assumption is absolutely logical.

My own opinion on this: the Greek state needs a 'reset'.
And re-using the same state officials, the same politicians, etc. is an
exercise in futility.
So, I would prefer management of the Greek state by outsiders who would
(presumably) be less inclined to bend the rules for their own
advancement, but they would be interested in making the system more
reliable.
(maybe I am naive and I believe that Europeans are less corrupt - at
least, they seem to be less incapable, although the recent vaccilations
in EU meetings tend to annul that view)

We shall see.

N.F.

Hans-Joachim Zierke

2011-10-25 20:01:01 UTC

Second part.

Post by Nick Fotis
In general, the rich in all societies tend to use all kinds of legal
machinations in order to avoid taxes, Greece is not unique in this.

Without any doubt, and German millionaires don't behave differently
from Greek millionaires, at least most of them. The difference lies
in the risk, to get caught.
Loading Image...

(That's the ex-boss of Deutsche Post taken in by police.)

Post by Nick Fotis
everybody knew that the Greek economy was not worth the ridiculously low
interest in money being loaned (basically, the really wrong part was
providing ultra-cheap credit on the whole Eurozone at German-level
interest, on economies that had no relation to Germany)

Why not? If used in the right way, this was to be a /major/ economic
advantage of the euro zone, especially for countries like Greece!
Worth billions to the Greek state, every year!

Post by Nick Fotis
And this triggered an irresponsible behaviour on the populace and the
elected politicians, while EU and Eurostat was accepting all these
spurious statistics and the excuses.

Everybody assumed, that Greece had done some tuning to the numbers.
That's nothing unusual, German unemployment statistics also include
some creative statistics. Some tuning of the numbers in Greece won't
have been a catastrophe, and check were impossible without violating
the rights of a member state.

Nobody expected, or at least nobody outside of Greece (not just in
Germany, but nobody) the _EXTENT_ of the creative statistics. Reason is,
that with this extent of creative accounting, it was no longer possible,
to have a working government. Look at the scenes with Papandreou: He
needed months just for getting full knowledge of the debt! It is
impossible to run a country this way. That's the way some 3rd world
country might get run, but it doesn't happen in Europe.

Or at least, that was the assumption.

Post by Nick Fotis
That was like spoiling a child for years, and suddently punishing it
because it became a brat.

The EU is supposed to be an association of the equal, not some
parent-child relationship.

Post by Nick Fotis
- OSE has essentially stopped getting new employees since 1985 (nearly
90% of the personnel is now near retirement age)

That's not much different in Germany. After the unification of
Bundesbahn and Reichsbahn, the whole thing was grossly overstaffed. The
agreement between trade unions and management has been, that nobody
gets fired, in exchange for no or very low rises in pay. After 15 years
of lowering employee figures without firing, the average age had
creeped to quite high a number, of course.

Post by Nick Fotis
- nearly half of the wages are not entering the pockets of the eployees,
but are social security costs, medical security, etc.

That's normal.

Post by Hans-Joachim Zierke
2) The economic advantages are worth it, even if Germany pays a major
share of the expenses, and countries like - say: Britain - have
mostly a free ride.

Sure. See above.

Post by Nick Fotis
Note that Germany (and France) have violated the Maastricht treaty for
years, but nobody said much in public.
Germany justified their bending of the treaty by the expenses of the
reunification, and the others kept silent as far as I remember.

Correct, and certainly a very bad example.

As well, I'm quite sure, that if Greece would violate the Maastricht
figures by a few percent after ... ... let's say a major earthquake, or
whatever unexpected huge expense comes along the way, the perception
abroad would be /very/ different, and it would be easy to have
acceptance for it.

Post by Nick Fotis
Note that the military spending is being justified with our neighbours
in the east.
I do not see any probability of Germany being attacked by Poland, in
comparison :-)

The Greek expenditure is higher than Germany's in the days of the Iron
Curtain (in percent of GDP).

Post by Nick Fotis
Funny thing is, Merkel and Sarkozy are still pressing Greece to buy
Eurofighters or FREMM frigates, respectively...

Here I'm with you... ;-)

Post by Nick Fotis
My own opinion on this: the Greek state needs a 'reset'.
And re-using the same state officials, the same politicians, etc. is an
exercise in futility.
So, I would prefer management of the Greek state by outsiders who would
(presumably) be less inclined to bend the rules for their own
advancement, but they would be interested in making the system more
reliable.

That would be bankruptcy, not just financial bankruptcy, but total
bankruptcy.

After all, Greece isn't somewhere in the 3rd world. You have a working
education system. If an overstaffed administration isn't capable of
doing its job, get them fired, by emergency law if need be, and bring in
kids fresh from university. Of course there will be some friction loss,
but not for a long time.

Don't forget that just some hundred kilometers south, people died by the
tenthousands, in order to finally get into control of their own fate!

Post by Nick Fotis
(maybe I am naive and I believe that Europeans are less corrupt - at
least, they seem to be less incapable, although the recent vaccilations
in EU meetings tend to annul that view)

While this report
http://www.transparency.org/policy_research/surveys_indices/cpi/2010/results
is based on some inexact science (for lack of a precise tool to measure
corruption), it might not be far from the truth.

Hans-Joachim

Nick Fotis

2011-10-25 23:32:22 UTC

Post by Hans-Joachim Zierke
Second part.
Without any doubt, and German millionaires don't behave differently
from Greek millionaires, at least most of them. The difference lies
in the risk, to get caught.
http://d1.stern.de/bilder/stern_5/wirtschaft/2010/KW31/Zumwinkel420_maxsize_420_280.jpg
(That's the ex-boss of Deutsche Post taken in by police.)

I'll be blunt, and I will point to a kind of 'omerta' between the
political elite and the higher society in Greece.
If anyone tries to 'rock the boat', he'll have a hard time pressing for
his case.

An example:
The ex-vice minister of economy Dimitris Kouselas (after a recent
reshuffle) claimed in a party meeting (and later to journalists) that he
sent to the previous minister of economy a list of 3.800 people owing
more than one million in taxes each
(that happened during a shouting match with the current minister of
Economy about the tax evasion)
The ex-minister denied that claim, and the next day the ex-vice minister
claimed he was being misquoted.

Lots of such incidents anger the populace, which feels that is being
ridiculed and that it pays for the rich and the corrupt.

Why not? If used in the right way, this was to be a /major/ economic
advantage of the euro zone, especially for countries like Greece!
Worth billions to the Greek state, every year!

The problem is that all this cheap credit wasn't being used in
productive fashion, or for good infrastructure projects.

For example, the Athens-Thessaloniki mainline still is a long way from
becoming double-tracked all the way, and with working electrification,
with the project having started decades ago, and lots of money sunk into
a huge hole...

If at least the electrification was complete, TRAINOSE would weather
better the much higher prices of diesel fuel these days.

But they didn't energize the already installed catenary in southern
Greece, with the result that gupsies stole more than 180 km of it, and
now OSE must reinstall it, at an expense of over 25 million Euros...

Post by Nick Fotis
And this triggered an irresponsible behaviour on the populace and the
elected politicians, while EU and Eurostat was accepting all these
spurious statistics and the excuses.

Nobody expected, or at least nobody outside of Greece (not just in
Germany, but nobody) the _EXTENT_ of the creative statistics. Reason is,
that with this extent of creative accounting, it was no longer possible,
to have a working government. Look at the scenes with Papandreou: He
needed months just for getting full knowledge of the debt! It is
impossible to run a country this way. That's the way some 3rd world
country might get run, but it doesn't happen in Europe.
Or at least, that was the assumption.

One thing that wasn't mentioned was the lack of continuity between
governments.

When a political party takes charge, it appoints nearly everyone at the
top echelons of each ministry, while the state engine nearly stops.
If the government declares elections, everything freezes (especially tax
collection), and after these finish there's the office reshuffle.

And the previous officers/ministers take everything (files, etc.) from
their office, even the computers.

Now, compare with Belgium, which is nearly two years without a
government and operates better than most Eurozone countries...

Post by Nick Fotis
That was like spoiling a child for years, and suddently punishing it
because it became a brat.

The EU is supposed to be an association of the equal, not some
parent-child relationship.

For Greece, that wasn't the case.
Greeks often behave like they do not want to be told the ugly truth, but
want to be told that always others are responsible for their problems.
That's like pampering the voters.

This state of denial still holds sway here, with people proclaiming "I
did pay my taxes, I did nothing illegal!", while at the same time
pocketing large subsidies for agricultural products they didn't produce.

Post by Nick Fotis
- nearly half of the wages are not entering the pockets of the eployees,
but are social security costs, medical security, etc.

That's normal.

Note that there was a nasty trick played against the OSE personnel:

the newspapers were implying that the drivers *in general* were earning
100.000 Euros per year, when the reality was that a small number of them
were earning around 50.000, and the typical driver was earning around
25.000 per year

(the 100.000 number was the official cost to the TRAINOSE - but even
then, TRAINOSE didn't pay at this time the retirement fund contribution
etc.).

Of course, drivers fell into the hole they created by themselves when
were 'leaking' payrolls for political party reasons...

Post by Nick Fotis
Note that the military spending is being justified with our neighbours
in the east.
I do not see any probability of Germany being attacked by Poland, in
comparison :-)

The Greek expenditure is higher than Germany's in the days of the Iron
Curtain (in percent of GDP).

Well, the Warsaw pact countries were rather careful to not act too
agressive (after all, they had the backing of CCCP), while Turkey often
makes threatening noises
(and the invasion of Cyprus in 1974 still lingers in Greek memories,
never mind that no side was innocent in this)

After all, if Turkey has declared 'casus belli' officially and makes all
the time noises trying to change the 'status quo' established since the
Balkan wars, I feel that the (much smaller) Greece has the right to be
worried and insecure.

That would be bankruptcy, not just financial bankruptcy, but total
bankruptcy.

I know, admitting that Greece is more like a 'failed state' is hard.

But many people are really disgusted with the half-hearted attempts done
to make-up the damage instead of cutting the cancer.

I will be blunt: both the two major political parties, mostly after
1981, decided to wine and dine their voters without regard for the
long-term debt situation. And voters were giving their votes in return.

They were passing the 'hot potato' to the next government, and MPs who
were trying to act responsibly were voted out of parliament immediately,
because they were 'spoiling the party'.

Post by Hans-Joachim Zierke
After all, Greece isn't somewhere in the 3rd world. You have a working
education system. If an overstaffed administration isn't capable of
doing its job, get them fired, by emergency law if need be, and bring in
kids fresh from university. Of course there will be some friction loss,
but not for a long time.

I hate to disappoint you, but even kids fresh from university are often
too enmeshed in political parties and corruption, demanding passing
grades for voting for some professors, etc..

Often, young politicos are causing all kinds of problems in Greek
universities, and the quality of education in these is suffering (that
is a LONG story).

When I was in National Technical University of Athens, I was mystified
by the repeated repulse of tries for some kind of rating of the
university quality - and the students who repulsed these tries are today
running the universities as professors which gained tenure via a corrupt
system, judging from reports around.

And the bad state of the Greek education has forced the brightest of us
to leave Greece permanently.
There is already a large wave of highly educated Greeks leaving the
country out of disgust and desperation, who will have also to battle the
low opinion that Bild and other newspapers have instilled into their
readers...

When Merkel railed against 'lazy Greeks', the official statistics showed
that average Greeks were working more hours per day than Germans and
were going into retirement at a higher age.
A major difference is that the average German worker doesn't have to
battle a corrupt bureaucracy, which invents laws all the time.

A friend has a factory, and he mentioned to me that he is waiting for
the permits for relocating it outside Attica region five years now, with
no end in sight
(he told explicitly to the engineers responsible that he wasn't going to
bribe anyone for accelerating the relocation).

Post by Hans-Joachim Zierke
Don't forget that just some hundred kilometers south, people died by the
tenthousands, in order to finally get into control of their own fate!

Let's hope they'll learn quickly.

Democracy demands much by the people (Demos) who decide their fate.

Now, if they decide to go for an Islamic republic, that'll be their
decision and they'll have to live with the consequences.

Perception is subjective and inexact, unfortunately.

Witness the recent scandal in Japan, with officials in the Olympus
camera company sending money to off-shore companies and the new CEO
being thrown away as he tried to stop this practice.
Or the Siemens bribery scandals that exploded around 2004, first in USA
and later in Europe - they got a slap in the hand (= fines) and they
promised they won't do it again.
And since I am saying 'exploded', do not forget the huge explosion in
Cyprus in the summer.
Or the recent Austrian scandals that are rocking the government...

Corruption is not a simple thing, neither is limited to Greece.

N.F.

Hans-Joachim Zierke

2011-10-27 15:41:32 UTC

Post by Nick Fotis
Lots of such incidents anger the populace, which feels that is being
ridiculed and that it pays for the rich and the corrupt.

That's what many Germans understand - at least the literate ones. But
now, imagine having the _option_, wether to pay the rich and corrupt
in Greece or not. How are you going to decide?

Post by Nick Fotis
The problem is that all this cheap credit wasn't being used in
productive fashion, or for good infrastructure projects.

Yes, sure, but the reason wasn't the cheap credit. After all,
(West-)Germany has had this credit rating since ... quite some time.

When the € was established, it was advertised as one of the major
advantages of the arrangement, that many members would enjoy cheaper
credit, thus creating an economic boom by lower costs of government.

And the rules about borrowing were installed to make sure, that certain
governments won't gamble away that advantage.

Post by Nick Fotis
One thing that wasn't mentioned was the lack of continuity between
governments.
When a political party takes charge, it appoints nearly everyone at the
top echelons of each ministry, while the state engine nearly stops.
If the government declares elections, everything freezes (especially tax
collection), and after these finish there's the office reshuffle.
And the previous officers/ministers take everything (files, etc.) from
their office, even the computers.

And why aren't they sent into jail for it? You tell it in a way, as if
Greece just has to accept getting robbed.

Post by Nick Fotis
I will be blunt: both the two major political parties, mostly after
1981, decided to wine and dine their voters without regard for the
long-term debt situation. And voters were giving their votes in return.

Create a third party.

Post by Nick Fotis
There is already a large wave of highly educated Greeks leaving the
country out of disgust and desperation, who will have also to battle the
low opinion that Bild and other newspapers have instilled into their
readers...

I don't see that problem. The public debate in Germany is mostly without
racist or xenophobic undertones, just full of desillusionment. Our
extreme right now targets the "islamic threat", some of them might even
detach themselves from antisemitism for it. Greeks are mostly below the
radar of our racists.

Post by Nick Fotis
When Merkel railed against 'lazy Greeks', the official statistics showed
that average Greeks were working more hours per day than Germans and
were going into retirement at a higher age.

My fellow Germans will now answer: "Official Greek statistics?"

And face it: For the decade to come, that's going to be one of the major
problems of Greece.

Post by Nick Fotis
A major difference is that the average German worker doesn't have to
battle a corrupt bureaucracy, which invents laws all the time.
A friend has a factory, and he mentioned to me that he is waiting for
the permits for relocating it outside Attica region five years now, with
no end in sight
(he told explicitly to the engineers responsible that he wasn't going to
bribe anyone for accelerating the relocation).

If you look at the map of Transparency International, you might sense
some interrelation between the level of corruption and economic success
of a country.
You have nicely explained, why German companies go to Bratislava, not
Greece.

Post by Nick Fotis
Witness the recent scandal in Japan, with officials in the Olympus
camera company sending money to off-shore companies and the new CEO
being thrown away as he tried to stop this practice.
Or the Siemens bribery scandals that exploded around 2004, first in USA
and later in Europe - they got a slap in the hand (= fines) and they
promised they won't do it again.

In the 1980s, managers in Germany would get fined or jailed for
corruption at home, while bribery abroad was tax-deductible.

Post by Nick Fotis
Corruption is not a simple thing, neither is limited to Greece.

Correct. The majority of people in the world live with it.

Hans-Joachim

Nick Fotis

2011-10-27 17:50:00 UTC

Post by Nick Fotis
Lots of such incidents anger the populace, which feels that is being
ridiculed and that it pays for the rich and the corrupt.

That's what many Germans understand - at least the literate ones. But
now, imagine having the _option_, wether to pay the rich and corrupt
in Greece or not. How are you going to decide?

And how will you separate this elite (which is very tightly-knit) from
the public servants or the workers who are taxed more and more, without
a way to escape?

Post by Hans-Joachim Zierke
When the € was established, it was advertised as one of the major
advantages of the arrangement, that many members would enjoy cheaper
credit, thus creating an economic boom by lower costs of government.
And the rules about borrowing were installed to make sure, that certain
governments won't gamble away that advantage.

Well, 'rules are for bending them', I suppose
(and Germans were first to do that regarding Maastricht limits, with
French following suit)

And I suppose this bad precedent didn't let the rules being enforced.
Note that from all the Eurozone countries, only Belgium (I think) and
Finland are completely inside the limits of the Maastricht treaty at the
moment.

And why aren't they sent into jail for it? You tell it in a way, as if
Greece just has to accept getting robbed.

Well, you have to "thank" the Greek law system for this.
In order to send people to jail, you have to be rich (in order to pay
lawers) and have lots of time available while fighting the contradictory
legal paraphernalia.

For the most trivial cases, you may get a court hearing 3-4 years after
the incident (only if you are caught red-handed you get a faster treatment).

As someone mentioned, 'justice delayed is justice denied'.

(personal example: my camera was confiscated two years ago, on the
suspicion that I was shooting photos of a military installation inside
Athens while I was shooting photos of a train station in front of it. I
am still waiting to get a court hearing...)

This 'discontinuity tradition' is very long - after a different
political party came to power, there were sweeping changes at many
levels, not only at the ministerial one.

So, the previous ministers take their archive with them when leaving
(the cynicals would say, in order to leave nothing incriminating...)

Create a third party.

There are already many parties (more than 25) in Greek elections.

And even the smaller parties get seats/positions in worker councils
etc., directly mirroring their parliamentary percentage.
Every party gains also financial help from the state while they are in
the parliament
(and the two largest parties owe 170+ million Euros to the banks, each)

But the electoral system is rigged in a way that the first party gets a
'bonus' of 50-60 seats (from the total of 300) in the Parliament, and we
have single-party governments since the Junta was ousted in 1974.

Only one coalition government was created in 1999, in order to bring the
leader of the first party (the father of the current prime minister)
before justice - as soon as he was entangled with courts, the coalition
was broken and elections were done again.

Add the lack of real education in many people in Greece (I refer to the
sad state of Greek universities, only one of these is in the top-300 in
Europe I think), the demagogues working in a partnership with newspapers
in order to present a skewed version of reality to voters (who are
expecting to gain from the one or the other party).

I wish to stress that there is not a 'consensus' culture in domestic
Greek politics (yet). Only circumstances *may* force a consensus, but it
will be not natural.

I do not speak about open racism (yet).

A friend who recently completed management practice in a multinational
in Switzerland, when his group sent CVs to German companies like
Bombardier, none of the German companies called back.

He believes it is a case of HR personnel being subliminally prejudiced
against 'lazy Greeks' - stereotypes at work here. His belief was
reinforced when Bombardier got the one in the group who had no Excel
knowledge for business data analysis, in which he excels (according to him)

My fellow Germans will now answer: "Official Greek statistics?"

Here is my data:

http://stats.oecd.org/Index.aspx?DataSetCode=ANHRS

(you select from Labour / Labour Force Statistics / Hours worked the
data comparison )

You will find that the typical retirement age is nearer to Germans than
politicians and newspapers would let you believe:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Retirement

Typical age:
Germany 67 years, Greece 65 years (if I remember correctly, G.Schroeder
has risen the retirement age before he left)

Loading Image...

gives an
ordering of actual retirement ages, with Greece and Germany side-by-side.

Post by Hans-Joachim Zierke
And face it: For the decade to come, that's going to be one of the major
problems of Greece.

Statistics?
Or the perception of Greeks as a lazy/irreponsible/incapable lot?

Post by Hans-Joachim Zierke
You have nicely explained, why German companies go to Bratislava, not
Greece.

Only if the Europeans oust the current elite from power positions and do
not permit to be corrupted themselves.

Seriously, I look forward to honest *and* capable managers to take-over
the management of the Greek state for at least a decade.
Similar to the first decade of the Greek state after the assasination of
its first governor, when the Bavarians under King Otto created a
semblance of a state.

Post by Hans-Joachim Zierke
In the 1980s, managers in Germany would get fined or jailed for
corruption at home, while bribery abroad was tax-deductible.

Yes, I was speaking about 2004, though - not the eighties.

Siemens' case was an event that forced Germany to change the
legislation, if my memory serves me correctly.

Cheers,
N.F.

Hans-Joachim Zierke

2011-10-27 21:52:55 UTC

Post by Nick Fotis
And how will you separate this elite (which is very tightly-knit) from
the public servants or the workers who are taxed more and more, without
a way to escape?

That's not possible from the outside.

In Germany, buying some CDs, while legally a bit questionable, currently
helps to stop betrayal. Just one week ago, several well-known people had
visitors in the early morning.
Apparently, a common trick is, to pay into a life insurance in
Luxemburg, and cash in on that after 12 years. While regulations won't
allow the trick in Germany, it's possible in Luxemburg, and after
12 years, it hits limitation in Germany, so you get away with it.
Apparently, the British HSBC figures prominently in aiding and abetting
to tax betrayal in Germany, using its division in Luxemburg.

But in Greece, it's the more basic issue of having enforcement at all.

Post by Nick Fotis
Note that from all the Eurozone countries, only Belgium (I think) and
Finland are completely inside the limits of the Maastricht treaty at the
moment.

At the moment, no EU country is inside limits, due to current inflation
caused by anti-crisis spending and lending.

Belgium isn't inside of debt limitations. Bulgaria, Denmark, Estland,
Finland, Luxemburg and Sweden are.

Post by Nick Fotis
He believes it is a case of HR personnel being subliminally prejudiced
against 'lazy Greeks' - stereotypes at work here.

Possible. Quite a problem with turkish surnames in Germany. "They
can't speak German", even if they do better than the decisionmakers. ;-)

Post by Hans-Joachim Zierke
My fellow Germans will now answer: "Official Greek statistics?"

You don't have to convince /me/. I wrote a reader's letter to a German
newspaper about it, just a few months ago.

I was merely pointing to the fact, that the direct result of creative
statistics is, that nobody in Germany believes into Greek statistics
any longer.
Even if the data /isn't/ wrong.

Post by Hans-Joachim Zierke
And face it: For the decade to come, that's going to be one of the major
problems of Greece.

Statistics?

Yes.

Post by Nick Fotis
Or the perception of Greeks as a lazy/irreponsible/incapable lot?

I don't think that Germans think about Greeks any more negatively than
Greeks about Greeks.

Post by Nick Fotis
Yes, I was speaking about 2004, though - not the eighties.

About Siemens and Tassos Mandelis, I think, who got 450000 on a Swiss
bank account in 98, from Siemens, for his election run.

The Siemens managers were prosecuted for betrayal of their
company, because money had disappeared. Nobody believes, that they
/really/ betrayed their company (most likely including the prosecutors),
but instead, used the money for bribes.

Result:

1) It is unlikely, that the Siemens managers betrayed their company,
but they got prosecuted anyway.

2) Mr. Mandelis clearly betrayed his country, but was shielded from
prosecution, until he reached the limitation threshold.

Post by Nick Fotis
Siemens' case was an event that forced Germany to change the
legislation, if my memory serves me correctly.

No, it serves you uncorrectly. ;-) The "Gesetz gegen die
Bestechung ausländischer Amtsträger" was passed in 1999. Until 1999,
Siemens' behaviour was legal in Germany. In countries, where corruption
was common, German companies were allowed to bribe.

Hans-Joachim

Hans-Joachim Zierke

2011-10-27 22:16:29 UTC

Post by Hans-Joachim Zierke
No, it serves you uncorrectly. ;-) The "Gesetz gegen die
Bestechung ausländischer Amtsträger" was passed in 1999.

Sorry, mine served me uncorrectly, too: 1998.

http://www.gesetze-im-internet.de/intbestg/BJNR232729998.html#BJNR232729998BJNG000100305

Hans-Joachim

Nick Fotis

2011-10-28 00:10:19 UTC

Post by Nick Fotis
And how will you separate this elite (which is very tightly-knit) from
the public servants or the workers who are taxed more and more, without
a way to escape?

The Greek government is making threatening noises about buying CDs with
names and addresses, but to me this looks like empty posturing.

Like the case with the lists of people who owe large amounts of taxes I
mentioned in my previous message.

But wait, there is a more farcical version:
Day 1:
- Current minister of Economy 'threatens' to publish a list with names
of people owing more than 150.000 Euros in taxes
Day 2:
- he says he'll publish the list, pending agreement of the independent
Data Protection Authority
Day 3:
- Authority responds 'OK, but you must send a 15-days personal notice to
each one before you make public the list'
- Minister says he'll submit the list to the parliament regardless
Day 4:
- Minister declares he'll put the list into a parliament room where MPs
can see it, but they are not allowed to copy it or take a pencil for
taking notes from it

(note that the Greek minister of Economy is a lawyer...)

A similar list with companies had OSE in the first position, owing 1.2
billion Euros in taxes to the state, and the rest was littered with
companies closed for more than a decade...

It would be high comedy, if it didn't involved real money.

Post by Hans-Joachim Zierke
But in Greece, it's the more basic issue of having enforcement at all.

At the moment, law enforcement AND the court system are seriously lacking...
And the whole public sector is really dusfunctional.

Post by Nick Fotis
Or the perception of Greeks as a lazy/irreponsible/incapable lot?

I don't think that Germans think about Greeks any more negatively than
Greeks about Greeks.

That's something I found really strange when I was younger.

When I interrailed in Europe in 2000, while I was in Berlin I saw
someone reading a Greek newspaper at Berlin Zoo station platform.

I said 'hello, what is in the news?' in Greek, and he looked at me like
I had horns on my head :-)

I suspect that Greeks leaving Greece for good want nothing to do with
other Greeks. No physical connection.

On the other hand, I see other people supporting each other
(e.g. Indian professors supporting more Indian students in an American
university, Chinese doing the same, etc.)
Greeks rarely seem to do that, maybe from fear of being accused of
nepotism/favoritism?
Or being fed up by this behaviour in Greece?

Post by Nick Fotis
Siemens' case was an event that forced Germany to change the
legislation, if my memory serves me correctly.

When Siemens was prosecuted in USA for bribery?
They got a major slap in the hand (heavy fines), and I think that the
German law changed due to this.

According to this: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Siemens#Bribery_case ,
they seem to violated the German law after 1999 (2002-2006).

The Greek case was unearthed in 2008:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2008_Siemens_scandal , but the practice was
older, as you noted.

N.F.

Hans-Joachim Zierke

2011-10-30 15:35:33 UTC

Post by Nick Fotis
When Siemens was prosecuted in USA for bribery?
They got a major slap in the hand (heavy fines), and I think that the
German law changed due to this.

No.
German law was changed after the Paris treaty of Dec 17. 1997 (about
fighting international bribery).

As well, it is plain obvious that the law changed beforehand: Until
1998, Siemens' behaviour would have been legal in Germany, and nobody
would have been prosecuted for it.

Post by Nick Fotis
According to this: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Siemens#Bribery_case ,
they seem to violated the German law after 1999 (2002-2006).

Yes.
And there is something very ironical about it: Siemens sold its FIT
software to the anti-money-laundering unit of the police in
Liechtenstein.

"Erkennen Sie alle Verdachts- und Deliktsformen und bekämpfen Sie diese
frühzeitig. Mit den Financial Investigation Tools von Siemens."

This advertisement was true. After two years of using it, the
Liechtenstein police found suspicious money streams indeed, of a certain
company, which led to investigations in Switzerland. The Swiss then
asked for help in Germany, which led to the razzia in Munich.
Two years for writing a letter to Germany? ;-)

On the other hand, that's logical: If handled faster, the crimes in
Greece won't have been covered by limitation.

Hans-Joachim

Nick Fotis

2011-10-30 20:25:57 UTC

On 30/10/2011 17:35, Hans-Joachim Zierke wrote:

[ nice irony case described ]

Post by Hans-Joachim Zierke
Two years for writing a letter to Germany? ;-)
On the other hand, that's logical: If handled faster, the crimes in
Greece won't have been covered by limitation.

Well, there is a 'dirty secret'...

The current Economy minister (E.Venizélos) when his party was in power
in the previous decade has passed a law where members of the parliament
gain full indemnity if two Parliament sessions have passed after the
time of the crime.

When the previous prime minister announced premature elections in 2009,
this law meant that MPs elected before 2004 were automagically
indemnified...

Add to that the chronic delays of the judicial system, and you start to
get the picture...

N.F.

Lüko Willms

2011-11-16 10:11:58 UTC

Post by Hans-Joachim Zierke
I don't see that problem. The public debate in Germany is mostly without
racist or xenophobic undertones, just full of desillusionment. Our
extreme right now targets the "islamic threat", some of them might even
detach themselves from antisemitism for it. Greeks are mostly below the
radar of our racists.

I do not speak about open racism (yet).

I do, and I know what I am speaking about as actually living in
racist Germany.

This AP-photo of Merkel instructing Papandreou in Cannes, with
Sarkozy watching tells it all.

Post by Nick Fotis
<Loading Image...

if that doesn't work, maybe it can be found in the article:
<http://www.tdg.ch/actu/monde/couple-franco-allemand-mis-papandreou-gril-g20-2011-11-02>

Cheers,
L.W.

Nick Fotis

2011-11-16 12:17:36 UTC

I do, and I know what I am speaking about as actually living in racist
Germany.
This AP-photo of Merkel instructing Papandreou in Cannes, with Sarkozy
watching tells it all.

Post by Nick Fotis
<http://www.tdg.ch/files/imagecache/468x312/story/sarko_22.jpg>

<http://www.tdg.ch/actu/monde/couple-franco-allemand-mis-papandreou-gril-g20-2011-11-02>

The body language interpretation from one photo can be a little misleading.

Anyway, George Papandreou stepped down from the position of prime
minister, it remains to be seen if the new coalition government will be
more successful.
(there is not a tradition of coalition governments in Greece, so most
people seem to employ a 'wait and see' approach)

Cheers,
N.F.

Lüko Willms

2011-11-17 11:07:55 UTC

This AP-photo of Merkel instructing Papandreou in Cannes, with Sarkozy
watching tells it all.

Post by Nick Fotis
<http://www.tdg.ch/files/imagecache/468x312/story/sarko_22.jpg>

<http://www.tdg.ch/actu/monde/couple-franco-allemand-mis-papandreou-gril-g20-2011-11-02>

The body language interpretation from one photo can be a little misleading.

I think that this one does tell it all.

Cheers,
L.W.

Hans-Joachim Zierke

2011-11-23 10:02:57 UTC

Post by Nick Fotis
After all, if Turkey has declared 'casus belli' officially and makes all
the time noises trying to change the 'status quo' established since the
Balkan wars, I feel that the (much smaller) Greece has the right to be
worried and insecure.

Solution:
http://www.hurriyetdailynews.com/n.php?n=dear-greek-brothers-you-too-may-borrow-our-prime-minister-2011-11-22

h.

Hans-Joachim Zierke

2011-10-25 19:59:58 UTC

I'll split this one to keep things readable and on one (off-)topic.

Post by Nick Fotis
Agreed, the story about Germany was a bit strange (to put that mildly).

No, I do not mean his scientific proof that Germans always think about
shit when exclaiming "Scheiße" (or Americans always think about sex
when exclaiming "fuck") - that's just funny.

The problem is, that he was physically there, could talk to people
in English, but did not understand ... almost anything. Let's do it
practically, that might be more obvious.

1)
"To no one but a German is Hamburg an obvious place to spend a
vacation" ...

2 minutes of fact-checking tell me, that the growth rate for foreign
visitors is higher than for Germans, and the numbers include some
140000 Americans.

2)
"Germany appears to have experienced a financial crisis without economic
consequences."

At this point, most people familiar with the German economy would expect
an explanation of "Kurzarbeit", but the guy didn't understand how things
worked, and apparently did't care to ask.

3)
"He couldn’t put it more bluntly: if the Greeks and the Germans are to
coexist in a currency union, the Greeks need to change who they are."

That of course isn't true. Truth is, that for Greeks earning more than
Germans (as they do), they would need to be either more productive, or
closer to their markets.

4)
He then tries to explain, why the average German didn't fall victim to
the Ponzi schemes of the banks. Normally, in any other environment but
the financial crisis, he would look at the victim as the clinical case
most probably, so one would expect him trying to explain the behaviour
of Americans.
This, however, might not please his audience, plus there is the obvious
question about history: The USA used to have similar safeguards as
Germany, for the same reason: A lesson taken from the Great Depression.

So the answer, why things worked out differently in Germany, is, at
least in major parts: Germany did not have a Ronald Reagan (who got rid
of the safeguards established after the Great Depression in the name of
deregulation).

5)
"The streets of Berlin can feel like an elaborate shrine to German
guilt. It’s as if the Germans have been required to accept that they
will always play the villain. Hardly anyone still alive is responsible
for what happened: now everyone is. But when everyone is guilty, no one
is."

Again, he does not understand anything. He looks at memorials to jews,
and does not understand the results of an inter-generational conflict:
At least half of it is not related to jews, but a huge middle finger to
those, who tried to raise their kids within a network of lies (and fell
on their face with that attempt in 1968 ff). Simple mathematics tells
us, that those, who started asking unwanted questions in 1968, are now
running the country, or at least, quite a part of it.

6)
"But there are no Jews in Germany, or not many."

No fact-checking again. There are about 200000 people of Jewish descent
in Germany, of whom >100000 are members of a congregation. That's a
result of GDR Volkskammer politics, established within the short period
of time, in which it did not take orders from the Politbüro. The author
didn't notice, because his knowledge of the 70s or 80s was good enough
for him.

7)
"Germans aren’t allowed to cheer for their team in the way other peoples
are."

This was certainly true, when he visited Germany some decades ago. 2006
at the latest, this was history,
Loading Image...

but he couldn't be bothered to update his knowledge.

8)
I'll stop here, it gets too long and boring.

Hans-Joachim

Theo Markettos

2011-10-19 11:44:29 UTC

Post by Arthur Figgis
And Ireland has actually got a renewed railway network out of it all.
How has, say, Greece got on in the same period?

Greece has got:

Double track electrified main line on about 2/3 of main N-S axis (up to
about 160km/h due to all the mountains) - previously severely speed
restricted twisty single line with no upgrades since 1950s.
Electrified routes in Macedonia
Athens suburban railway network (didn't exist before) and interchanges with
N/S and E/W axis routes
Athens tram
Athens metro extensions, including new link to new airport
Thessaloniki tram
Major renewals of metre gauge network in Pelopponnese and isolated network
near Messolonghi
~50% stock renewal
Opening of new Greece/Turkey passenger service
New high speed (as much as the geography will allow) route Athens-Patras
under construction

But of course OSE was haemorraging cash... partly because fares have
historically be heavily state subsidised (the train being a social service
the way that British rural buses are, Greek buses being semi-commercial
operations).

So the short term cost slashing has been to close the entire metre gauge
network (including the bit near Messolonghi that never saw a train) leaving
new trains and track to the mercy of metal thieves. Severe service cuts
including all international trains, a number of standard gauge routes
closed.

After making the above list, it's struck me how much was achieved despite
the mismanagement that pervades many projects (eg spend 5 years renewing a
section of metre gauge track, and then close it a few months after it
opened).

THeo

Hans-Joachim Zierke

2011-10-19 14:55:30 UTC

...hmmh... how about a different metric, like

- EU money spent on the OSE since 1981
vs.
- result in passenger figures, compared to 1981?

That Greece /got/ a lot, is out of question. Like those Hellas-Sprinter
locomotives on the yard tracks, which were bought for several millions
per piece, and never saw any service in the last 10 years, for lack of
ability to complete the electrification.

So it makes more sense to ask about /results/.

Hans-Joachim

Theo Markettos

2011-10-19 15:14:19 UTC

Post by Hans-Joachim Zierke
That Greece /got/ a lot, is out of question. Like those Hellas-Sprinter
locomotives on the yard tracks, which were bought for several millions
per piece, and never saw any service in the last 10 years, for lack of
ability to complete the electrification.
So it makes more sense to ask about /results/.

Indeed, there are plenty of other examples, and yet more happening today in
the name of 'austerity'... just look at the pictures of trashed new stock
here:
http://www.amnizia.com/site/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=71&Itemid=73

In terms of bang per buck it's probably fairly dire. But merely listing the
number of bangs is instructive in realising the amount that /was/ achieved
(and the EU mostly paid for).

Theo

Ulf Kutzner

2021-10-19 11:48:57 UTC

Post by Theo Markettos

Indeed, there are plenty of other examples, and yet more happening today in
the name of 'austerity'... just look at the pictures of trashed new stock
http://www.amnizia.com/site/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=71&Itemid=73
In terms of bang per buck it's probably fairly dire. But merely listing the
number of bangs is instructive in realising the amount that /was/ achieved
(and the EU mostly paid for).

Some Hellas-Sprinter locos are now used on Thessaloniki suburban services.

The electrification to Athens is what they call completed but not
sure that high speed trains imported from Italy may run, and
freight trains continue with diesel operation as electrification
seems very weak in power and needs upgrading from the very beginning,
as far as the sections between Thessaloniki and Athens are concerned.

Regards, ULF

Bruce

2011-10-19 17:51:21 UTC

I wholeheartedly agree. Unfortunately, there are too many people who
believe that spending is an end in itself, when what matters is how
well that money is spent, and what return it provides.

In the UK, we had 13 years of a Labour government that valued spending
above all else, but paid very little attention to what that spending
actually achieved. They proudly published figures for their huge
increases in public spending; meanwhile, it was mostly difficult to
see just what value this spending had delivered, apart from a debt
that is worse than that of Greece.

So any criticism of Greece, however soundly based, should be carefully
made, because Britain also has plenty of examples of where
ridiculously large amounts of money have been spent, yet little or
nothing has been achieved.

The Real Doctor

2011-10-19 19:35:22 UTC

Post by Bruce
So any criticism of Greece, however soundly based, should be carefully
made, because Britain also has plenty of examples of where
ridiculously large amounts of money have been spent, yet little or
nothing has been achieved.

Amongst the most notorious of which must be the "flood protection"
schemes of the 90s on which a huge amount was spent but which when put
to the test proved woefully inadequate.

Ian

Graeme Wall

2011-10-20 07:32:59 UTC

Post by The Real Doctor

Amongst the most notorious of which must be the "flood protection"
schemes of the 90s on which a huge amount was spent but which when put
to the test proved woefully inadequate.

The best flood protection is to stop building on the flood plains.

--
Graeme Wall
This account not read, substitute trains for rail.
Railway Miscellany at <www.greywall.demon.co.uk/rail>

Arthur Figgis

2011-10-19 18:37:48 UTC

Post by Theo Markettos

Post by Arthur Figgis
And Ireland has actually got a renewed railway network out of it all.
How has, say, Greece got on in the same period?

Double track electrified main line on about 2/3 of main N-S axis (up to
about 160km/h due to all the mountains) - previously severely speed
restricted twisty single line with no upgrades since 1950s.
Electrified routes in Macedonia
Athens suburban railway network (didn't exist before) and interchanges with
N/S and E/W axis routes
Athens tram
Athens metro extensions, including new link to new airport
Thessaloniki tram

How is the Thessalonki metro coming on these days?

Post by Theo Markettos
Major renewals of metre gauge network in Pelopponnese and isolated network
near Messolonghi

Haven't they shut the whole lot?

Post by Theo Markettos
~50% stock renewal
Opening of new Greece/Turkey passenger service

But no international links today? Even Ireland has one rail link to the
evil imperialistic neighbour...

Post by Theo Markettos
New high speed (as much as the geography will allow) route Athens-Patras
under construction
But of course OSE was haemorraging cash... partly because fares have
historically be heavily state subsidised (the train being a social service
the way that British rural buses are, Greek buses being semi-commercial
operations).
So the short term cost slashing has been to close the entire metre gauge
network (including the bit near Messolonghi that never saw a train)

Quite. They have at least run trains on the Midleton or Limerick-Galway
lines.

Post by Theo Markettos
leaving
new trains and track to the mercy of metal thieves. Severe service cuts
including all international trains, a number of standard gauge routes
closed.

Ireland has lost Waterford - Rosslare, which is obviously sad but it was
pretty hopeless.

Post by Theo Markettos
After making the above list, it's struck me how much was achieved despite
the mismanagement that pervades many projects (eg spend 5 years renewing a
section of metre gauge track, and then close it a few months after it
opened).

I'm not sure I'd call that an achievement :-)

--
Arthur Figgis Surrey, UK

Nick Fotis

2011-10-20 00:54:25 UTC

One common theme on these projects was a horrible mismanagement.
As far as I know, NONE of the projects managed by ERGOSE (the project
management part of OSE group) was delivered on time and inside the
allocated budget.

The run up to Athens Olympics in 2004 was a once-in-a-lifetime chance to
rebuild the Greek rail network - and they blew it.

Lots of delays, legal wrangles, etc. conspired so that when the Olympic
games passed (and the funding suddently stopped), nearly nothing has
finished beyond Athens Metro two new lines (even these, in the rush to
reach Athens airport, skipped two stations that had to be built later,
closing again the line for nearly a year).

One major problem is that the legal system is so hopelessly plugged and
slow (at the moment, there are nearly half a million cases to be
resolved at the courts), and even after a project starts anybody can
stall it using legal means (adding to delays and extra costs).

Add to that that the managers had opened too many projects in parallel
instead of focusing in the critical Athens-Thessaloniki mainline, and
you start getting the idea (I hope)

N.F.

tim....

2011-10-21 18:21:21 UTC

Thursday 20th October 2011 Modernisation of Irish Rail : 1997 -
2011
Oliver Doyle, former Operations Schemes Development Manager, Irish
Rail Oliver reflects on the almost total reconstruction of the Irish
Rail network following the Knockcroghery derailment in 1997. His paper
covers the transformation of the railway system from mixed operation
to a predominantly high frequency passenger operation, from loco-
hauled trains to push-pull and multiple unit, supported by extensive
track renewals and track layout changes, new signalling systems, and
upgrading of stations and passenger facilities.

And the Irish wonder why their economy is bankrupt?

Did Ireland pay for it?
Though the alternative to serious modernisation was probably some kind
of O'Serpell.

What they need is some kind of generous O'Polson ...

And what's more it was easily predictable.

I did the line when it only when from Limerick to Ennis and there was me and
about three others using it

tim

Arthur Figgis

2011-10-21 21:15:13 UTC

Post by tim....

And what's more it was easily predictable.
I did the line when it only when from Limerick to Ennis and there was me and
about three others using it

I suspect two were me and my mate from school! The guard made some
comments about people just going for the ride.

--
Arthur Figgis Surrey, UK

Bill

2011-10-22 19:08:19 UTC